Premier Danielle Smith says Alberta’s strong economy is being offset by falling oil prices and rapid population growth, and she wants Albertans to weigh in next year on how the province should respond.
On Thursday evening, Smith said Alberta is leading the country in job growth, investment, GDP and wages. She pointed to recent project announcements, including data centres, pipeline expansions and a major petrochemical investment, as signs of continued economic strength.
At the same time, she said the province’s finances are under pressure because oil prices have dropped. When she became premier, oil averaged about US$90 a barrel, bringing in more than $25 billion in royalties and producing a roughly $12 billion surplus in 2023. With oil now closer to US$60, she said the province has moved into deficit. Each $1 drop in oil prices reduces royalty revenue by about $750 million.
Smith also linked budget pressures to population growth. She said Alberta has added nearly 600,000 people in five years, pushing its population above five million. She blamed federal immigration policies and their effects on Alberta’s health care, education and social services, which are struggling to keep up.
She said student enrolment has risen by more than 80,000 in four years, with more than 140,000 students now learning English as an additional language. She said teachers and students are facing increased classroom complexity and crowding.
Smith said her government will not make deep cuts to core services in the upcoming budget. Wage increases already approved for doctors, nurses and teachers will stay in place. Instead, the government plans to limit spending growth to below inflation and population growth, reduce bureaucracy, improve program delivery and expand income testing for some social programs.
She repeated her long term goal of growing the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund to more than $250 billion by 2050. The fund has grown from about $16 billion in 2021 to nearly $32 billion today. She said investment income from a larger fund would help protect the province during future oil downturns.
In the medium term, Smith said Alberta aims to increase oil and gas production to more than eight million barrels a day by 2035. She said the province will work to expand pipeline capacity west and south, and seek access to additional ports.
The centrepiece of the speech was a proposed provincial referendum set for Oct. 19, 2026.
Smith said Albertans will be asked whether the province should take more control over immigration to lower levels and focus on economic migrants. Other proposed questions would ask whether only citizens, permanent residents and people with Alberta approved immigration status should qualify for provincially funded programs, whether temporary residents should wait 12 months before accessing social supports, and whether they should pay fees for health care and education.
The ballot would also include constitutional questions. These include whether Alberta should work with other provinces to amend the Constitution to let provinces appoint judges to provincial courts, abolish the Senate, allow provinces to opt out of certain federal programs without losing funding, and give provincial laws priority over federal laws in shared areas of jurisdiction.
Smith said she is seeking a clear mandate from voters on these issues. The referendum, if it goes ahead, is likely to trigger debate over immigration, provincial authority and Alberta’s role within Canada.