Sat. Nov 23rd, 2024

Canada’s Shrinking Job Market: Vacancies Plummet

The Canadian labour market continues to experience a notable shift as job vacancies fell by 59,000 (-9.2%) in the second quarter of 2024, marking the eighth consecutive quarterly decline. This downward trend, which began in the second quarter of 2022, has seen job openings drop from a record high of 983,600 to 582,600 by mid-2024. The decline in vacancies has outpaced previous quarters, reflecting a more rapid contraction in the availability of jobs across multiple sectors and regions in the country.

Both permanent and temporary positions have been affected, with permanent job openings declining by 43,400 (-8.3%) and temporary positions falling by 15,600 (-12.9%). Full-time job vacancies also saw a sharp reduction, dropping by 45,400 (-9.5%), while part-time vacancies were down by 13,600 (-8.3%). These trends suggest that the Canadian job market is experiencing a broad contraction, with fewer opportunities available for both long-term and short-term employment.

While job vacancies dropped significantly, the number of employed individuals increased by 62,000 (+0.4%) during the same period, indicating that payroll employment is growing. Despite this growth, overall labour demand remained relatively unchanged from the previous quarter and year-over-year comparisons.

The job vacancy rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.3% in the second quarter of 2024. This marks the lowest vacancy rate since the first quarter of 2020, just before the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global labour markets. The steady decrease in job vacancies has pushed the vacancy rate to levels not seen since early 2020, signaling a significant cooling of the labour market.

One of the most telling indicators of the labour market’s current state is the rise in the unemployment-to-job vacancy ratio. In the second quarter of 2024, there were 2.4 unemployed persons for every job vacancy, a figure that has been climbing steadily since the third quarter of 2022. This increase is the result of a combination of factors, including the sharp decline in job vacancies and a notable rise in unemployment. According to data from the Labour Force Survey, the number of unemployed Canadians has grown by 315,600 (+29.9%) over the past two years, while vacancies have fallen by 374,500 (-39.2%) during the same period.

The decline in job vacancies is widespread, affecting seven of the ten broad occupational groups in Canada. The most significant decrease occurred in trades, transport, and equipment operators and related occupations, where vacancies fell by 19,200 (-15.3%). Sales and service occupations also experienced a sharp decline, with job openings falling by 18,400 (-9.9%).

Other notable decreases were seen in business, finance, and administration occupations (-4,600; -5.8%) and natural and applied sciences occupations (-4,500; -9.6%). These figures reflect a broad contraction across key sectors, further highlighting the challenges faced by job seekers in these fields.

Interestingly, some occupational groups saw little change in job vacancies, including natural resources, agriculture, and related production occupations (13,100 vacancies), and legislative and senior management occupations (1,100 vacancies).

The trades, transport, and equipment operators sector has been hit particularly hard by the ongoing decline in vacancies. The number of open positions in this sector has now dropped for eight consecutive quarters, with the latest figures showing 105,900 vacancies, down from a peak of 195,000 in the second quarter of 2022.

Year-over-year, the decrease is even more pronounced, with 46,900 fewer positions available (-29.0%) compared to the same quarter in 2023. Key roles such as transport truck drivers, construction labourers, and material handlers have seen some of the steepest declines, indicating a persistent reduction in demand for workers in these fields.

Sales and service jobs, which account for nearly 30% of all job vacancies, have also seen a sustained decline. In the second quarter of 2024, job openings in this sector fell by 18,400 (-9.9%), marking the seventh consecutive quarterly decline. On a year-over-year basis, vacancies in sales and service occupations dropped by 88,000 (-32.2%), the largest decrease among all occupational groups. Positions for food counter attendants, retail salespersons, and customer service representatives were among those that saw the largest declines.

The healthcare sector, which had been a strong source of job growth during the pandemic, saw its first significant quarterly decline since 2022. Vacancies in health occupations fell by 3,900 (-4.3%) to 88,600 in the second quarter of 2024. However, the proportional decrease in health job vacancies was smaller than the overall market decline, causing healthcare jobs to make up a larger share of the total vacancies (15.2%, up from 14.4% in the first quarter). Long-term vacancies, particularly in nursing roles, remain a significant issue, with 45.8% of health vacancies remaining unfilled for 90 days or more.

In the business, finance, and administration sector, job vacancies decreased by 4,600 (-5.8%) to 75,100, the lowest level since 2021. Roles in marketing, accounting, and administrative support were among those most affected by the decline.

The reduction in job vacancies was not uniform across Canada, with some provinces and territories experiencing sharper declines than others. Quebec saw the largest drop, with vacancies falling by 16.3%, followed by Prince Edward Island (-13.8%) and Ontario (-9.7%). Alberta, Saskatchewan, and British Columbia also recorded decreases, while other provinces saw relatively stable vacancy levels.

Among economic regions, Toronto, Ontario, and Montérégie, Quebec, were among those hit hardest by the decline, with significant reductions in job openings. Southwest Manitoba was the only region to see an increase in the job vacancy rate, which rose by 0.5 percentage points to 4.3%.

Despite the overall decline in vacancies, average offered hourly wages have continued to rise, reflecting a robust demand for workers in specific sectors. In the second quarter of 2024, the average hourly wage for vacant positions increased by 6.8% year-over-year to $26.80. Full-time positions saw a wage increase of 6.6%, while part-time positions saw an even higher jump of 7.7%.

Positions requiring a high school diploma or less accounted for the majority of the year-over-year decline in vacancies, with a 29.8% drop. However, employers in sectors still facing staffing shortages are offering higher wages to attract candidates, particularly

Canada’s job market continues to face significant shifts, with the second quarter of 2024 seeing a substantial decrease in job vacancies across the nation. According to data released on September 17, job vacancies fell by 59,000 (-9.2%) in Q2 2024, reaching 582,600 open positions. This marks the eighth consecutive quarter of declining vacancies since peaking at 983,600 in the second quarter of 2022. The decline in Q2 2024 was nearly twice the rate observed in the previous quarter, which saw a 30,200 (-4.5%) drop, indicating an accelerated cooling of the labour market.

Permanent and temporary positions were both affected by the downturn. Permanent job vacancies dropped by 43,400 (-8.3%), while temporary roles saw a sharper decline of 15,600 (-12.9%). Full-time job openings decreased by 45,400 (-9.5%), and part-time roles dropped by 13,600 (-8.3%).

While vacancies contracted, payroll employment increased slightly, with 62,000 (+0.4%) more Canadians filling positions during the same period. The overall demand for labour, which includes both filled and vacant jobs, remained stable when compared to both Q1 2024 and Q2 2023.

The job vacancy rate, which measures vacant positions as a proportion of total labour demand, fell by 0.3 percentage points to 3.3% in Q2 2024. This rate now matches the lowest seen since the first quarter of 2020, when the pandemic first caused major disruptions in the labour market.

The ratio of unemployed Canadians to job vacancies continued its upward trajectory. In Q2 2024, there were 2.4 unemployed individuals for every open position, up from the previous quarter. This reflects a longer-term trend that began in the third quarter of 2022, driven by a decrease in job openings and a concurrent rise in unemployment. Since that time, job vacancies have dropped by 374,500 (-39.2%), while the number of unemployed people has increased by 315,600 (+29.9%).

Job vacancies decreased across 7 of 10 broad occupational groups in Q2 2024, with the largest declines seen in trades, transport, and equipment operators (-19,200; -15.3%), followed closely by sales and service occupations (-18,400; -9.9%). These two sectors alone accounted for more than half of the overall decline in job vacancies during the quarter.

  • Trades, Transport, and Equipment Operators: Vacancies in this group fell by nearly 20,000 positions, with transport truck drivers and construction trades helpers experiencing the most significant losses. This marks the eighth straight quarter of decline for these roles, which have seen a 29.0% decrease year-over-year.
  • Sales and Service Occupations: The ongoing contraction in sales and service job openings continued, with positions falling by 9.9% in Q2. Over the past year, this group has seen a dramatic 32.2% decline in vacancies. Roles such as food counter attendants, retail salespersons, and customer service representatives were particularly hard hit, shedding tens of thousands of positions.
  • Business, Finance, and Administration Occupations: Vacancies in this group dropped by 4,600 (-5.8%) in Q2 2024, bringing them to their lowest level since 2021. Significant declines were seen in professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations, as well as in accounting and clerical positions.

In contrast, job vacancies in fields like natural resources, arts, and senior management remained largely unchanged. These sectors, while stable, account for a much smaller proportion of the overall job market.

One notable shift occurred in the healthcare sector, which had previously seen stable or rising demand. In Q2 2024, job vacancies in health occupations fell by 3,900 (-4.3%), marking the first significant decrease since the third quarter of 2022. Despite this decline, healthcare roles now represent 15.2% of all job vacancies, up from 14.4% in the previous quarter.

Registered nurses and psychiatric nurses saw the largest decline in open positions, followed by nurse aides and licensed practical nurses. However, long-term vacancies—positions that remain unfilled for 90 days or more—remained disproportionately high in healthcare, with 45.8% of these roles falling into this category.

Despite the overall drop in job openings, wages continue to rise. The average offered hourly wage for vacant positions grew by 6.8% year-over-year to $26.80 in Q2 2024. This was slightly lower than the 7.3% growth seen in the previous quarter but still outpaced the 5.1% wage growth of all employees as measured by the Labour Force Survey.

Positions requiring a high school diploma or less experienced the most significant reduction in job vacancies, accounting for over 70% of the year-over-year decline. These lower-skilled positions saw a 29.8% drop in openings, as demand for workers without advanced qualifications shrank more rapidly than for those requiring higher education.

The decline in job vacancies was felt across much of Canada, with some provinces seeing sharper drops than others. Quebec saw the steepest decline, with vacancies falling by 16.3%, followed by Prince Edward Island (-13.8%), and Ontario (-9.7%). In terms of specific regions, Toronto, Montérégie, and Lower Mainland-Southwest in British Columbia saw the largest reductions in job openings.

Southwest Manitoba was the only economic region to experience a year-over-year increase in the job vacancy rate, with a modest rise of 0.5 percentage points to 4.3%. Most other regions saw their vacancy rates decline, with Quebec’s Capitale-Nationale and Côte-Nord regions registering the steepest drops.

As the Canadian labour market continues to cool, businesses across various sectors are scaling back their recruitment efforts. With rising unemployment and falling job vacancies, the economic landscape remains uncertain. Yet, wage growth offers some consolation for workers, particularly those in full-time and permanent positions.

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