The Texas coast is bracing for impact as Hurricane Beryl, currently a tropical storm, approaches with increasing intensity. As of this afternoon, Beryl is still classified as a tropical storm, boasting sustained winds of 60 mph. The storm has strengthened considerably since emerging from the Yucatan Peninsula and is now leveraging the warm Gulf waters to gain further power. However, the upper atmospheric dynamics are not yet fully conducive to rapid intensification, a situation expected to change overnight and into tomorrow.
Currently, Beryl is moving northwest at just under 15 mph and is approximately 400 miles from Houston, inching closer to the coast. Landfall is anticipated within the next 48 hours, likely by Monday morning, bringing the storm’s peak impacts to Southeast Texas. The key risks associated with Beryl include coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and an enhanced threat of tornadoes.
Coastal flooding poses a significant threat, with storm surges expected to reach between 2 to 5 feet, similar to the effects witnessed during Tropical Storm Alberto a few weeks ago. Specific areas such as Brazoria and Matagorda Counties could experience storm surges as high as 3 to 5 feet, while Galveston Bay, including the Bolivar Peninsula, may see surges of 2 to 4 feet.
Rainfall is another major concern, with the potential for heavy downpours leading to significant flooding. The heaviest rain is expected to fall close to the storm’s center, which could result in rainfall totals ranging from 2 to 4 inches on the lower end and up to 6 to 10 inches in some areas, with localized pockets experiencing even higher amounts. The distribution of rainfall will depend on the precise path and intensity of the storm as it moves inland.
The threat of tornadoes is heightened across Southeast Texas, particularly from the coast up to the city of Houston. This risk spans multiple days, beginning on Sunday and continuing into Monday. Tornado warnings are in effect, especially for Galveston County, Chambers County, southern Liberty County, and southeastern Harris County. The highest tornado threat is expected along the coast and in the city of Houston, with a level 2 out of 5 severity rating.
The forecast track for Beryl has remained relatively stable, which is a positive sign as the window for significant changes narrows. Landfall is expected somewhere along the middle Texas coast, with a projected timing between 1 a.m. and 1 p.m. on Monday. The storm is likely to make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, subsequently weakening to tropical storm strength as it moves inland. Houston will experience the brunt of the storm during the day on Monday before Beryl accelerates towards the north and east by midweek.
Unlike Hurricane Harvey, which caused catastrophic flooding by stalling over the region, Beryl is expected to keep moving, mitigating the risk of prolonged heavy rainfall. By Tuesday, conditions are anticipated to improve, allowing for recovery efforts to commence.
High-resolution future track models indicate that Beryl will achieve hurricane status by Sunday afternoon, with the storm likely situated 200 to 250 miles offshore at that time. Landfall is expected around Matagorda Bay down to Corpus Christi, as a Category 1 hurricane by sunrise on Monday. Southeast Texas will experience heavy bands of tropical rain on Monday, but not a continuous washout. The heaviest rains will fall in bands, with potential gusty winds and isolated tornadoes.
Rainfall totals could be substantial, with southeast Texas potentially receiving between 2 to 4 inches, and some pockets seeing 6 to 10 inches or more. These totals will depend on where the heaviest rain bands set up.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
Tropical storm warnings are now in effect for Galveston County, Chambers County, southern Liberty County, and southeastern Harris County. Brazoria County and parts of Colorado and Wharton counties also have tropical storm warnings, while hurricane warnings are in place for Matagorda County. Coastal areas, particularly those in Brazoria and Matagorda counties, should prepare for significant storm surges.
Residents in the path of Hurricane Beryl are urged to stay informed and take necessary precautions as the storm approaches. The situation remains dynamic, and any small track adjustments could significantly impact the severity and location of flooding and other storm-related threats. Continuous updates will be provided on air and online to keep the public informed as Beryl nears the Texas coast.
As Hurricane Beryl approaches, the Texas coast faces a multifaceted threat, including coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and tornadoes. With landfall expected early Monday, residents are advised to stay vigilant and prepared for potential impacts. The forecast will continue to be refined as the storm draws closer, and timely updates will be crucial for ensuring safety and preparedness.
Esra Sahin