In March 2024, Canada experienced a notable 11.7% decrease in the total value of building permits, marking a downturn in construction intentions across the nation. The total value plummeted to $10.5 billion, indicative of a broader economic shift within the construction industry. This decline is significant, reflecting a trend contrary to the consecutive months of increases witnessed prior.
The decrease in construction intentions is evident across both residential and non-residential sectors. In the non-residential realm, intentions dropped by 16.7% to $4.0 billion. Notably, the industrial component bore the brunt of this decline, plummeting by 46.1%, attributed largely to the absence of major industrial permits issued in March compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, institutional construction intentions also saw a notable decrease of 22.2%.
However, amid these declines, the commercial component managed to mitigate losses in the non-residential sector, exhibiting growth of 5.8% to $2.2 billion. This commercial growth is a noteworthy counterbalance to the overarching decline in building permits.
In the residential sector, a similar narrative unfolds with a decrease of 8.3% to $6.5 billion in March. Ontario, in particular, led this decline, with a significant drop in both single-family and multi-family dwelling permits. Despite this, certain regions such as Quebec, Prince Edward Island, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Manitoba experienced growth in the residential sector, albeit modest.
Looking at the broader picture, the first quarter of 2024 offers a mixed perspective. While there was a partial rebound in the total value of building permits to $33.4 billion, representing a 3.7% increase from the previous quarter, it remains lower than the average quarterly levels of the preceding two years. British Columbia emerged as a key player in this rebound, posting significant gains in both the commercial and industrial non-residential components, as well as in the multi-unit residential sector.
Notably, the commercial component played a pivotal role in this first-quarter rebound, surging by 22.3% to $6.6 billion, driven primarily by permits for office buildings. Provinces like Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia spearheaded this growth, showcasing a positive trajectory in commercial construction intentions.
In contrast, the residential sector’s growth was more subdued, with a modest 1.8% increase in the first quarter. While the multi-unit component saw growth, the single-family homes component experienced a decline, highlighting a nuanced pattern within the housing market.