In 2024, Canadian agriculture faces a mixed forecast, with expectations for higher production of key crops like wheat, oats, and soybeans, but declines in others such as canola, corn for grain, and barley. These insights come from the latest yield model estimates released by Statistics Canada and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, using advanced satellite imagery and agroclimatic data to provide early crop forecasts. The estimates are part of a long-standing effort to track the state of Canadian farming and offer a glimpse of what the harvest season holds for the country’s farmers.
Since 2016, the use of satellite technology to model crop yields has been a reliable method in determining agricultural output across Canada. This innovative approach, replacing survey-based methods, allows for more accurate predictions by integrating real-time weather conditions and vegetation health data. In 2024, these methods indicate significant regional variability in growing conditions, with western Canada facing challenges from hot, dry weather and eastern provinces faring better with more stable conditions.
The headline takeaway for 2024 is an expected rise in wheat production, which is projected to increase by 4.1% year-over-year to 34.3 million tonnes. This growth is largely driven by anticipated higher yields, up 5.7% to 48.4 bushels per acre, even as the area harvested decreases by 1.6%.
Durum wheat, in particular, is expected to perform well, with a remarkable 47.6% production increase, bringing total output to 6.0 million tonnes. The boost is attributed to both a rise in harvested area (+5.3%) and a sharp jump in yields (+40.2%).
Provincially, Alberta is projected to see the largest wheat production increase, with a 10.7% rise to 10.3 million tonnes, supported by a 12.1% increase in yields. In contrast, Manitoba’s wheat output is expected to decline by 8.8% due to a decrease in both harvested area and yields.
Canola, one of Canada’s most important crops, is forecasted to experience a slight decline in production, down 1.1% to 19.0 million tonnes. This decrease is driven by lower yields, which are projected to fall by 0.8% to 38.4 bushels per acre. Harvested area is also expected to edge down slightly by 0.4%.
Despite these declines, canola production remains strong in Saskatchewan, which will see only a 0.4% decrease in output. Alberta is expected to experience a more significant decline, with production forecasted to drop by 1.7%. Manitoba, too, faces challenges, with a 7.4% yield reduction expected to lead to a 2.2% decrease in production.
Corn for grain, another staple crop, is projected to see a 1.6% decrease in production, falling to 15.2 million tonnes in 2024. This is despite an expected rise in yields (+3.7%), as the total harvested area is forecast to shrink by 5.2%. Ontario, Canada’s largest corn-producing province, is projected to see a 3.8% drop in production, driven by a reduction in harvested area, which offsets yield gains.
Barley production is also set to decline in 2024, with a significant 14.7% year-over-year decrease to 7.6 million tonnes. Both yields and harvested area are expected to decline, signaling a challenging year for barley growers. Yields are forecasted to fall by 0.3%, while harvested area is projected to drop by 14.3%.
In contrast to the downward trends for canola and barley, soybeans are projected to see an increase in production, up 3.1% to 7.2 million tonnes. This growth is expected despite only modest yield improvements, as harvested area is anticipated to rise by 2.0%. Ontario, the largest soybean-producing province, is expected to lead this growth, with a 6.9% increase in production. However, Manitoba is forecast to see an 8.7% drop in soybean output, driven by a sharp decrease in harvested area.
Oat production is also forecasted to rise in 2024, with a 14.2% year-over-year increase to 3.0 million tonnes. This rise is largely due to a significant expansion in harvested area, which is expected to grow by 14.6%. However, yields are projected to remain relatively stable, with only a slight decrease of 0.4%.
One of the defining features of the 2024 growing season has been the stark differences in weather conditions across Canada. The Prairie provinces, particularly Alberta and Saskatchewan, have faced lower-than-average precipitation and prolonged periods of high temperatures, which have negatively impacted crop health. By the end of August, only 43% of Alberta’s crops were rated as being in good to excellent condition, a significant drop from earlier in the season.
Saskatchewan has experienced similar challenges, especially in the southern regions, where hot and dry conditions have hampered crop growth. Meanwhile, Manitoba has fared better, with provincial reports indicating above-average precipitation levels and more normal temperatures.
In Eastern Canada, crops have generally performed better. Ontario and Quebec have seen stable growing conditions, although some areas of Ontario have faced issues with excess moisture and high temperatures. The Atlantic provinces, too, have experienced warmer and drier conditions than usual, which may affect the final yield outcomes.