Tue. Apr 1st, 2025

A Mixed Outlook for Cross-Border Journeys

Canada’s travel landscape has seen varied trends in early 2025, with marked shifts in movement between Canada, the United States, and international destinations. While visits to Canada from U.S. residents continue to surge, the decline in overseas visitors and a slight dip in Canadian residents’ trips abroad suggest a more complex picture of Canadians’ travel activity.

January 2025 marked a robust 20.8% increase in the number of U.S. residents visiting Canada, reaching a total of 1.1 million trips. The surge represents the continued strength of cross-border travel between the neighboring countries, a relationship that has endured despite challenges. For the fourth consecutive month, trips made by automobile have seen significant growth, with 819,400 U.S. residents entering Canada by car — an increase of 24.4% year-over-year.

Automobile travel, which now accounts for 74.5% of U.S. arrivals, is especially notable, with over half of these trips being made as same-day visits. Air travel, while a smaller proportion at 22.6%, also showed solid growth, climbing 11.2% from the previous year. The trend of increased automobile travel highlights the continued ease and affordability of short trips for American visitors, driven in part by proximity and favorable exchange rates.

In contrast, the number of overseas residents arriving in Canada has been on a downward trajectory for the fourth consecutive month. In January 2025, 277,000 overseas residents visited Canada, a 0.6% decrease compared to January 2024.

Among the largest groups of overseas visitors, countries like Mexico, China, and the United Kingdom accounted for the majority of arrivals. Mexico, for example, saw 27,400 visitors, followed closely by China with 27,100, and the United Kingdom at 25,500.

On the outbound side, Canadian residents took fewer trips abroad, with 4 million departures in January 2025 — a slight dip of 0.5% from the same period in 2024. Air travel remains dominant, accounting for 54.5% of outbound trips, though this segment also experienced a slight decline of 1.4%. The decrease is particularly noticeable in trips by air to the United States, which saw a 6.2% drop, while travel to other overseas destinations by air fell by 3.1%.

Interestingly, road trips to the U.S. have seen marginal growth. Approximately 1.8 million Canadian residents crossed into the U.S. by car, marking a slight increase of 0.6% year-over-year. A significant portion of these trips, 68.5%, were same-day journeys, a reminder of the convenience and affordability of short visits for Canadians.

Seasonally adjusted data reveals that while U.S. visits to Canada rose by 1.7% compared to December 2024, the number of U.S. visitors arriving by air showed a modest decline of 1%. However, the increase in automobile arrivals (+3.2%) continues to reinforce the preference for road trips, especially with the winter months offering fewer airline routes and higher costs.

The ongoing growth in U.S. travel to Canada underscores the economic and cultural ties between the two countries, further fueled by proximity and relatively low travel costs.

For Canadian residents, the slight downturn in outbound travel, particularly in air travel to the United States, indicates a growing hesitation to travel abroad, potentially driven by economic factors, air travel costs, or even a shift in vacation habits towards closer destinations. Overall, while the U.S. continues to be a strong partner in cross-border travel, the shift in patterns from overseas visitors and the subtle decline in outbound Canadian trips reveal the delicate balance of international travel in 2025.

As the year unfolds, all eyes will be on whether these trends persist or whether new factors alter the travel landscape between Canada and the world.

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