Premier Danielle Smith engaged in an online roundtable with members of the media, addressing a variety of pressing issues concerning Alberta’s trade relationship with the United States, including the potential for upcoming tariffs and the province’s strategic response. During the virtual meeting, Smith answered questions regarding her recent visit to Mar-a-Lago, her discussions with President-elect Donald Trump, and the implications for Alberta’s energy sector and broader Canadian trade.
A central focus of the roundtable was the imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, set to take effect following President-elect Trump’s inauguration. Smith emphasized the importance of understanding the broader context of trade between Canada and the U.S., particularly regarding energy exports, which play a critical role in the economic relationship.
“I think we need to be prepared that tariffs are coming,” Smith noted. She highlighted the trade imbalance that the United States perceives, especially in terms of energy exports. Despite this, Smith pointed out that when energy is excluded from the equation, Canada actually maintains a favorable trade balance with the U.S., purchasing more goods and services from America than vice versa.
“We actually have a $58 billion trade deficit with the U.S. when energy is taken out of the equation,” Smith explained, citing a National Bank report that supports this claim. This context, she added, underscores the importance of Alberta’s oil and gas sector in keeping the trade relationship balanced.
In her conversations with President-elect Trump, Smith sought to gauge the U.S. administration’s stance on the tariff threat, particularly as it relates to Alberta’s energy exports. While she did not secure any promises of exemption from the tariffs, Smith emphasized the value of Alberta’s oil and gas exports to the U.S. economy. She noted that Canada’s energy resources are sold at a discount, benefiting American consumers by keeping energy costs low.
“I’m hoping that we can make the case that we should continue to enjoy a tariff-free relationship,” Smith said, underlining the mutual advantages of the energy trade. She acknowledged that the U.S. has other sources of oil, but Canada’s integration into the U.S. energy market makes it a far more reliable and beneficial partner.
One of the recurring concerns raised by journalists during the roundtable was the potential impact of Canada’s political situation on trade negotiations. With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau facing leadership challenges and the federal government in a period of transition, Smith expressed concern about the leadership vacuum and the need for decisive action. She called for an immediate election to ensure that Canada had strong representation at the negotiating table.
“We need somebody at the table who is able to engage with the administration saying, ‘You’ve got a four-year mandate, I’ve got a four-year mandate, let’s deal,'” Smith remarked, stressing that the lack of a clear leader could undermine Canada’s position in upcoming trade discussions.
Smith was also asked about the possibility of retaliatory measures, such as an export tax on U.S. goods, should the tariffs be imposed. She warned against engaging in a tariff war, noting that retaliatory measures would likely hurt Canadian consumers and businesses just as much as their American counterparts.
“We cannot do anything that harms Canadians in such a substantial way,” Smith said, referencing the integration of Canada’s energy market with the U.S. She emphasized that Alberta’s oil and gas are critical not only to Alberta’s economy but to other Canadian provinces as well, particularly Ontario and Quebec, which rely on Canadian oil.
Smith also warned of the national unity crisis that could arise from such trade tensions. “There will be a national unity crisis on their hands,” she stated, suggesting that the anger and frustration felt by Albertans could lead to political instability.
Throughout the roundtable, Smith continued to stress the importance of energy in Canada’s trade relationship with the U.S. She explained that energy was not just Alberta’s largest export but also a vital component of the broader economic ties between the two countries. In response to a question about the potential for an energy embargo, Smith firmly rejected the idea of cutting off energy exports to the U.S., saying it would harm not only Alberta’s economy but also Ontario and Quebec’s access to affordable energy.
Smith advocated for a strategy that leverages Alberta’s strong energy sector to avoid punitive trade measures. “We already have a relationship with the U.S. that benefits both countries, and I think we can continue to build on that,” she said, noting that Alberta’s energy exports reduce energy costs for U.S. consumers.
Looking ahead, Premier Smith outlined Alberta’s strategic approach to potential tariffs. While she expressed hope that tariffs could be avoided, she acknowledged that Alberta would need to be prepared for the possibility of economic disruptions.
“I think we will have to talk to industry about how we minimize the impact of tariffs,” Smith said. She pointed to the potential for running deficits and the economic consequences of lower prices for Alberta’s oil, which could negatively affect the provincial treasury.
Smith also spoke about the ongoing discussions with other provinces and the federal government regarding the tariffs. She noted that discussions would intensify leading up to the January 20th deadline, and that a collective response would be needed.
Premier Smith ended the roundtable with a call for cooperation between provinces, the federal government, and industry leaders to ensure that Alberta’s economy remains resilient in the face of trade uncertainty. While she expressed concerns about the leadership vacuum at the federal level, Smith was optimistic about Alberta’s ability to navigate these challenges.
“We’ve got a strong base to start from,” she said, emphasizing that Alberta’s energy resources and trade relationships are essential to the long-term prosperity of both the province and Canada as a whole.
As discussions continue regarding potential tariffs and Alberta’s role in the broader economic landscape, Premier Smith’s focus remains on maintaining Alberta’s strong trade ties with the United States and safeguarding the province’s economic interests amid political and trade uncertainties.