Canadian farmers are poised to see a varied performance in crop yields for 2024. According to recent model-based estimates from Statistics Canada, which utilize satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, the nation’s wheat, canola, oats, and soybean production are expected to rise compared to last year. However, corn for grain and barley yields are projected to decline, highlighting the impact of diverse growing conditions across the country.
Wheat is forecasted to see a notable increase in production. The total wheat output is expected to reach 34.4 million tonnes, a 4.3% rise from 2023. This surge is largely attributed to improved yields, anticipated to grow by 5.9% to 48.5 bushels per acre. Despite this positive outlook, the harvested area is projected to shrink by 1.6% to 26.0 million acres, underscoring the complex interplay between acreage and productivity.
Durum wheat, in particular, is expected to drive this overall increase. Yields for this crop are projected to soar by 39.8% to 35.8 bushels per acre, contributing to a remarkable 47.3% increase in production, reaching 6.0 million tonnes. This stands in contrast to spring wheat, where production is anticipated to decline slightly by 0.7% to 25.4 million tonnes, despite a modest yield increase of 2.9%.
Provincially, the outlook for wheat varies. Saskatchewan, the nation’s largest wheat-producing province, is expected to see a slight decrease in harvested area but an 8.4% increase in production due to higher yields. Alberta is also forecasted to experience a significant 9.6% boost in wheat production, reaching 10.2 million tonnes, driven by a 10.7% rise in yields. Conversely, Manitoba faces a decline, with production expected to drop by 3.7% to 5.2 million tonnes due to lower yields and a reduced harvested area. Ontario, where winter wheat predominates, is set for a significant downturn, with production projected to fall by 16.6% due to both lower harvested acres and yields.
Canola, another vital crop for Canada, is expected to see a modest increase in production, rising by 1.6% to 19.5 million tonnes. This increase is primarily driven by higher yields, projected at 39.4 bushels per acre, while the harvested area is expected to decrease slightly by 0.4% to 21.8 million acres.
In Saskatchewan, canola production is anticipated to rise by 2.9% to 10.6 million tonnes, buoyed by a 5.4% increase in yields. Alberta is also expected to see gains, with a 2.4% increase in production driven by higher yields, even as the harvested area remains unchanged. However, Manitoba presents a contrasting picture, with production forecasted to decline by 3.8% due to a sharp drop in yields, despite an increase in the harvested area.
Corn for grain production is projected to decrease by 1.2% to 15.2 million tonnes in 2024. This decline comes despite a 4.1% increase in yields, which are expected to reach 168.5 bushels per acre. The decrease in production is primarily due to a 5.2% reduction in the harvested area, which is expected to fall to 3.6 million acres.
Ontario, the largest corn-for-grain-producing province, is expected to see a 3.0% decline in production to 9.7 million tonnes, driven by a reduction in harvested area. In contrast, Quebec is anticipated to experience a 7.3% increase in production due to a significant 9.1% rise in yields. Manitoba is expected to follow the national trend, with a 4.8% drop in production resulting from a steep decline in harvested area, despite higher yields.
Soybean production is set to increase by 2.4% to 7.1 million tonnes nationally, with yields expected to rise slightly by 0.4% to 46.1 bushels per acre. Harvested area is anticipated to grow by 2.0% to 5.7 million acres, supporting the overall increase in production.
Ontario is projected to lead this growth, with a 6.9% increase in production to 4.3 million tonnes, driven by a significant expansion in the harvested area. Quebec is also expected to see gains, with a 7.7% increase in production. However, Manitoba is likely to face challenges, with production forecasted to decline by 14.1% due to reductions in both harvested area and yields.
Barley production is forecasted to decline sharply by 16.1% to 7.5 million tonnes, reflecting a 14.3% decrease in harvested area and a 2.1% drop in yields. This decline contrasts with the outlook for oats, where production is expected to rise by 10.1% to 2.9 million tonnes. The increase in oat production is largely due to a 14.6% expansion in the harvested area, although this is somewhat offset by a 3.8% decrease in yields.
The varied outlook for Canada’s principal crops reflects the diverse climatic conditions across the country. In the Prairie provinces, lower-than-average precipitation and prolonged high temperatures have created challenging conditions, particularly in Saskatchewan and Alberta. However, some regions have seen improvements compared to last year, contributing to the overall positive projections for wheat and canola.
In contrast, Eastern Canada has faced different challenges, with Quebec and the Atlantic provinces experiencing warmer and drier conditions, while parts of Ontario have grappled with excessive moisture. These regional disparities underscore the importance of technological advances in crop monitoring and yield estimation.