In the latest release of population projections by Statistics Canada, significant changes in Canada’s demographic landscape are anticipated from 2023 to 2073.
In 2023, Canada’s population was around 40.1 million. According to the projection scenarios, this number could soar to between 47.1 million and 87.2 million by 2073. The medium-growth scenario (M1) places the population at 62.8 million by the end of this period. These projections underline the critical role of migratory increase in driving population growth, continuing a trend evident since the early 1990s. Natural increase (births minus deaths) is expected to play a minimal role due to low fertility rates and an aging population.
One of the most significant shifts in the demographic structure is the anticipated tripling of the population aged 85 and older by 2073. Currently, 18.9% of the population is 65 and older; this proportion is expected to rise to between 21.9% and 32.3% by 2073. The growth of this age group will be particularly sharp between 2031 and 2050, as the baby-boomer generation ages.
The share of children (aged 0 to 14) in the population has been decreasing since its peak at 34% in 1962. Estimated at 15.4% in 2023, this share is projected to decline further in most scenarios, with the exception of the slow-aging and high-growth scenarios. The average age of Canada’s population is expected to increase from 41.6 years in 2023 to between 42.6 and 50.1 years by 2073.
The projections also reveal shifts in the demographic weights of Canada’s provinces and territories. Provinces east of Ontario, such as Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Quebec, are expected to see their share of the total population decline. In contrast, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia are projected to experience an increase in their demographic weight.
Ontario and Quebec will remain the most populous provinces over the next 25 years. However, growth rates will vary significantly across provinces and territories. For instance, the low-growth scenario suggests potential population decreases in Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories by 2048.
As the population ages, the proportion of older adults (aged 65 and older) will rise in all provinces and territories. The number of individuals aged 85 and older will also see a rapid increase, necessitating substantial healthcare and services to support this age group.